Sunday, April 01, 2012

Wrestlemania Wagers...

Last year I discovered that you can actually place a bet on Wrestlemania at certain online casinos, and that they treat this event just like any MMA or boxing event.  Apparently the only real difference is that they cap the bets at $100.  The current odds are listed on TopDog's Online Sportsbook, and these are the ones that I am doing for my predictions.

Keep in mind that I rarely watch the WWE, and that my prognostications are being done as someone who understands sports betting, and who understands wrestling.  This is for entertainment purposes only. 

John Cena vs. Rocky Maivia (+130/-160)
     The way this works, is that the + means they are the underdog, and if you bet $100, then you win that amount.  The - means that they are the favorite, and that to win $100, you must bet that amount.  In other words, if you throw down $100 on this match, you are either walking away with a profit of $30 if you bet on Cena, and if you throw down $160 on Rock you will walk away with $100 of profit.  However, if you lose you are either losing $100, or $160.
     This match could really go either way, and if the Rock has indeed signed a deal for two-three more matches as has been rumored, I think the odds are very good he will win.  Still, it doesn't make a lot of sense for Cena, who is relatively full-time w/ the promotion, to put over the part-time guy, so based on the odds, I go with him.
Pick: CENA

Undertaker vs. Hunter Hearst Helmsley (-310/+240)
    This is the biggest spread of the card, and that is most likely due to the fact that Undertaker has never lost at Wrestlemania.  This is a Hell In A Cell match, and HBK is the referee. 
    If you are throwing down a $100 bet, you would be a fool not to pick HHH.  I do not think HHH is winning this, it is just that the streak has become such a big part of the Undertaker and Wrestlemania, that the deck has to be seemingly stacked against him to make it interesting.  HHH is the boss's son-in-law, and is best friends with the referee.  The HIAC would seem to favor Undertaker, but I do not think HHH has ever lost a HIAC, so there is that. 
    I think that Undertaker wins this match (probably because of Michaels), but if I were actually throwing down $100, I would take HHH.
Pick: Helmsley

Team Teddy Long vs. Team John Laurenitis (+160/-200)
    I have no clue who the participants are in this match, but it is for control of the "Authority Figure" position in the WWE.  Laurenitis is winning this, because it is more interesting to have the rudo in charge, and to later get his comeuppance. 
Pick: Team Laurenitis

CM Punk vs. Chris Jericho (-160/+150)
     A pretty close one here, for the Raw Championship.  The babyface champion usually retains at Wrestlemania, but this is obviously not the main event of the night.  Punk losing here makes sense, as Jericho didn't return to the WWE to not headline cards, and there should be two big babyface wins after this match (Undertaker, Cena).  Jericho make the most sense here, money-wise too. 
Pick: Jericho

Daniel Bryan vs. Sheamus (+160/-200)
     Fron what little WWE I do follow, I know that they have something great here with Bryan as the Smackdown Champion.  However, the company wants to make Sheamus into a top draw, and he is getting the win here.  Pick: Sheamus 

Cody Rhodes vs. Big Show (+135/-165)
   Big Show is the favorite here because of his size, and the fact they are building the match based off of Show having a horrible Wrestlemania record.  Rhodes is the guy they are making into a star, he will be going over in the match, so the money goes on him.  My hesitation with this pick though is that there could be some kind of shenanigans here where there is a count-out, or a DQ.  I think Rhodes is somehow picking up the win, but Big Show is going to be the last man standing in the ring.
Pick: Rhodes

Randy Orton vs. Kane (-250/+200)
     Another really big spread, and that is because this match was just kinda thrown together, and Orton is the obvious favorite.  That is a fat payday if Kane wins though, so my money goes on him. 
Pick: Kane

Kelly Kelly & Maria Menounos vs. Beth Phoenix & Eve (-250/+200)
Remember last year how there was some goofy chick fight and Snooki ended up being on the winning team?  Yeah, the same idea here is why Kelly & Menounos are the favorites.  However, I can totally see Phoenix beating Kelly here, so I am picking the dog. 
Pick: Phoenix & Eve

After the show I will revisit this to see how I did picking against the experts in Vegas.

 I went 3-for-5, mostly because I took the dogs in a couple of these because of the payoffs if they won; Unfortunately the only underdog to win was Kane.  Not to make excuses, but if I knew that Punk/Jericho was going on in the semi-main spot I would have taken Punk, since the babyface typically retains, and I don't think anyone thought the HIAC match would be in the middle of the card.  I wasn't really surprised that Menounos & Kelly won, but I was surprised that she got the pinfall, and on Phoenix. 

Aside from the betting lines, it seemed like the clear pattern of the night was an ol' fashioned carny "screw-over the fans because we have their money already" card.  Do not get me wrong - that is what Wrestlemania typically is, which somewhat amazes me because in a lot of ways it kills their PPV business for the rest of the calendar year.  The WWE likes to shit on WCW for "giving away free matches" when that organization is reflected upon, but WWE has a good habit themselves of doing a lot of repeat matches the next night on Raw to placate the masses that feel cheated by 'Mania (but of course, still tune in to Raw).

The WWE clearly displayed a pattern tonight of having the "special attractions" take home the victories.  Menuonos, Rock, and Taker all were one-night-only, and all won.  "Internet Fan" favorites like Bryan, Ryder and Phoenix all lost.  

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